London Mayoral Election

[timrollpickering]

The biggest falls were almost all where Simon Hughes had a personal vote and Brian Paddick didn't:

9. Orpington, Bromley: -18.61

The one non Southwark ward in the top ten. From what I can tell the Lib Dems generally fight the GLA elections by local groups targetting their good areas, rather than constituency or capital wide strategies (hence their poor performance). I presume this result is indicative of the Lib Dems throwing far less at the Commons Orpington seat than in the run up to the 2005 election.

[Pete Whitehead]

That ward saw a notable diaster for the Lib Dems in the local elections of 2006 also

[DBIV]

Eleven wards in which the Conservative constituency assembly candidate got more votes than Boris Johnson:

1. Preston, Brent: +91
2. Wandsworth Common, Wandsworth: +54
3. Balham, Wandsworth: +52
4. Northcote, Wandsworth: +38
5. Nightingale, Wandsworth: +34
6. Eastcote and East Ruislip, Hillingdon: +29
7. Hanger Hill, Ealing: +14
8. Earlsfield, Wandsworth: +13
9. Fairfield, Croydon: +12
10. Shaftesbury, Wandsworth: +5
11. Bryanston and Dorset Square, Westminster: +5

He also tied in Fairfield and West Hill wards, Wandsworth. The Conservative Assembly candidate was more than 20% behind Boris Johnson in seven wards, all in Barking and Dagenham apart from the famous South Bermondsey, Southwark.

[DBIV]

Fourteen wards in which the Labour assembly constituency candidate led Ken Livingstone:

1. Kenton East, Harrow: +151
2. Edgware, Harrow: +73
3. Kenton West, Harrow: +72
4. Queensbury, Harrow: +58
5. Canons, Harrow: +47
6. Edgware, Barnet: +38
7. Alperton, Brent: +22
8. Hale, Barnet: +19
9. Eltham West, Greenwich: +19
10. Coldharbour and New Eltham, Greenwich: +17
11. Garden Suburb, Barnet: +15
12. Heath, Barking and Dagenham: +15
13. Kenton, Brent: +3
14. West Hendon, Barnet: +3

Ken Livingstone was over 30% ahead of the Labour constituency candidate in nine wards, all in Tower Hamlets apart from one in Newham. In Whitechapel, Tower Hamlets, he was 40.2% ahead.

[Pete Whitehead]

Eleven wards in which the Conservative constituency assembly candidate got more votes than Boris Johnson:

1. Preston, Brent: +91

Preston is the ward of defeated Assembly member Bob Blackman

Interesting that many on the other list are also in that constituency

[DBIV]

Overall, the Liberal Democrat constituency Assembly candidate was behind Brian Paddick in 168 wards, tied in one (Latchmere, Wandsworth), and ahead in 458. The best Lib Dem constituency Assembly candidates, in comparison with Brian Paddick's Mayoral vote:

1. Fulwell and Hampton Hill, Richmond-upon-Thames: +29.23
2. Teddington, Richmond-upon-Thames: +28.75
3. Newington, Southwark: +28.11
4. Twickenham Riverside, Richmond-upon-Thames: +27.55
5. St. Margaret's and North Twickenham, Richmond-upon-Thames: +26.28
6. Muswell Hill, Haringey: +25.39
7. Hampton, Richmond-upon-Thames: +23.75
8. South Twickenham, Richmond-upon-Thames: +23.72
9. Highgate, Haringey: +21.57
10. Crouch End, Haringey: +21.49

And the ten in which the Assembly candidate fell most heavily behind:

1. Hampstead Town, Camden: -12.64
2. Swiss Cottage, Camden: -12.49
3. West Hampstead, Camden: -12.47
4. Fortune Green, Camden: -12.27
5. Belsize, Camden: -12.00
6. Childs Hill, Barnet: -10.58
7. Cantelowes, Camden: -10.48
8. Highgate, Camden: -10.42
9. East Finchley, Barnet: -10.27
10. King's Cross, Camden: -10.18

Most of these wards are contiguous.

[Harry Hayfield]

According to the BBC, Boris is keeping his column http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7402818.stm so might he keep Henley until the next election as well?

[erlend]

I believe he has ststed there will be a byelection. I hear that the Tory selection is not being rushed (like Labour in Crewe) and will be about the end of June. This could be just gossip, I am not an insider.

Erlend

[ColinJ]

Eleven wards in which the Conservative constituency assembly candidate got more votes than Boris Johnson:

1. Preston, Brent: +91

Preston is the ward of defeated Assembly member Bob Blackman

Interesting that many on the other list are also in that constituency

Yes indeed, we have covered that in the Brent and Harrow discussion.  I think one of the problems for the Conservative candidate (Bob Blackman) was the perception that he was trying to juggle too many roles:

• Brent councillor
• Deputy leader of Brent council
• GLA member for Brent and Harrow
• Conservative PPC for Harrow East
• High-powered job for British Telecom

and maybe needed taking down a peg or two. 

The Labour candidate's high profile in the heavily Hindu wards of Kenton East, Kenton West, Queensbury and Edgware explain his popularity there, and, as you have mentioned elsewhere, his lead over Livingstone in Canons ward may be due to the latter's unpopularity with sections of the Jewish community.  The inclusion of Brent's Kenton ward in the list posted by David obviously continues the geographical cluster to another ward with a substantial Hindu community.[/list]

[DBIV]

Here's another interesting one: the proportion of spoiled votes as a percentage of all votes, in the Mayoral contest. Top came Alperton, Brent, where there were more than 7%; it was followed by Southall Green, Ealing, and then came three Tower Hamlets wards: Spitalfields and Banglatown, St. Dunstan's and Stepney Green, and Whitechapel.

Lowest proportion of spoils came in Royal Hospital, Kensington and Chelsea.

[DBIV]

<fx Peter Snow> This is just a bit of fun but I made the comparison between Ken Livingstone's 2008 Mayoral vote and the Labour vote for the European Parliament in 2004. This was Labour's worst election in 2004. Ken in 2008 did better than Labour in 2004 for Europe in all but 20 wards.

The best ten were:

1. Spitalfields and Banglatown, Tower Hamlets: +53.27
2. Whitechapel, Tower Hamlets: +51.20
3. Bethnal Green South, Tower Hamlets: +49.67
4. Bromley-by-Bow, Tower Hamlets: +47.00
5. St. Dunstan's and Stepney Green, Tower Hamlets: +46.89
6. Shadwell, Tower Hamlets: +45.81
7. Green Street West, Newham: +45.15
8. Mile End East, Tower Hamlets: +45.12
9. Bethnal Green North, Tower Hamlets: +43.89
10. Weavers, Tower Hamlets: +42.77

And the worst ten falls:

1. Rainham and Wennington, Havering: -3.85
2. Mawneys, Havering: -3.24
3. St. Michael's, Bexley: -2.49
4. South Hornchurch, Havering: -1.58
5. Stanley, Kensington and Chelsea: -1.50
6. Elm Park, Havering: -1.43
7. Havering Park, Havering: -1.34
8. Lady Margaret, Ealing: -0.63
9. Garden Suburb, Barnet: -0.62
10. Crayford, Bexley: -0.57

[Al]

Might be a few mistakes there.

[erlend]

I am very impressed.

So at a glance the boroughs where every ward went the same way are

Con Sutton, Richmond, Havering

Lab Newham

and with just one ward missed by the winner

Con Kingston

Lab Lambeth, Tower Hamlets, Southwark, Haringey (actually I think those may have Respect, LD and LdD wards in the final 3 but itis interesting for Con/Lab comparison). I hpe you have done that electronically rather than manually, I assume so from consistency of shade otherwise ouch).

Erlend

[DBIV]

So at a glance the boroughs where every ward went the same way are

Lab Newham

And Lab Islington.

[erlend]

Mea culpa And Lab minus one Hackney. And I had seen it an blanked it!