The European Elections In Other EU Countries

[GreenKeane]

From Ireland, apparently

[Neil]

Presumably a local election candidate as there is no Euro candidate of that name?

[GreenKeane]

I'm not sure if he's a candidate at all, he may just be putting them up for the sake of it. 

[Mark Goodair]

Could the duopoly in Malta be threatened?
Alternattiva Demokratika candidates for the European Parliament Arnold Cassola and Yvonne Aquieros Ebejer were upbeat yesterday at a press conference to publicise the Europe-wide ‘Predict09’ survey that puts the Greens at 6.3% of the vote for 6 June- up from 1.9% in the first edition of the survey.
“It is true that polls are what they are, but scientific surveys may provide good indications,” AD chairman and MEP candidate Arnold Cassola said.
“On 6 June, we will be voting to elect five seats now and a sixth one in January – depending on what comes out of the Lisbon Treaty Irish referendum,” he added. “We envisage the sixth seat being ours because four seats are elected with full quota and the fifth and the sixth are elected from the leftovers.

[doktorb]

Aww, plucky little Malta.

[erlend]

I thought Malta elected by STV. If so that sounds like bullsh**. One does not have people elected as the largest remainder. On the other hand thir elimination might decide which other party wins.

With a 5 seater the quota is 1/6 of the vote 16.7%. As I understand it Malta's voters transffer within their parties almost as well as SF voters. So when looking at the final vote, if they make it into the last 3 candidates they have a chance if they have 2 other parties stnding and beat one of them (on those figures they would as 6.3 does not go 3 times into 16.7) but virtually none if the other 2 are from the same party. If the former, and all the Nationalist/Labour voters transfer to them to beat the Labout/Nationalist candidate they could win but I would not hold my breath.

[Mark Goodair]

If you take a look at the 2004 results you will see that the AD candidate is not knocked out until the last and 18th count.
http://www.maltadata.com/europarl.htm

[erlend]

Oh indeed. They got I think 8.3% of first prefs. I suspect they need to reach about 10% to be in with a shout. But god do those transfers look stalinist. There is a Labour surplus of 1030 votes transferred on the 11th round. 11 go to the AD and 3 to the NP. 98.6% stay within the family!

And on the NP side a candidate with 16113 votes is knocked of in round 14, 175 do not transfer (1.1%), of the remaining 15938, just 89 go to the AD and 24 across to Labour. SF would dream of a leakage of 0.7%.

Erlend

[Mark Goodair]

I do understand that politics in Malta is very tribal.

[erlend]

But there are enough floaters to flip a handful of seats from election to election.

Erlend

[Fisher_gate]

In terms of the European Anti-Capitalist Left, most eyes will be on France where the New Anti-Capitalist Party (NPA) are hopeful of a breakthrough into the European Parliament.  They are currently polling 6-10% which should secure them some seats (though under the regional system it depends on where there votes are).  The NPA includes the now dissolved LCR, which won seats in a joint list with LO in 1999 only to lose them in 2004.  The LO are outside the NPA and standing independently polling around 2%, not enough to win seats.  The Communist Party have an alliance with ex-socialists but are in long term decline and may be eclipsed by the NPA.

In Portugal, the Left Bloc (EB) are hopeful of retaining their seat and are polling around 6% which is similar to or a slight improvement in the last national election. 

The EB and NPA are campaigning jointly together with the newly formed Anti-Capitalist Left (IA) in the Spanish State.  The IA have had some big rallies (500-700) in Madrid and Barcelona but as this is their first electoral outing are not expected to go much beyond 2%.  British socialist filmmaker and Respect member, Ken Loach, is supporting them through making a film for the IA's rallies.

In the Netherlands, the Socialist Party (SP) an ex-Maoist party but with a wide left support is polling around 10% and is expected to hold its two seats (out of only 25).  The Red-Green Alliance in Denmark fell slightly in the last national parliamentary election but held on to four seats.  It does not contest European Elections but is part of the People's Movement against the EU, a broader anti-EU list, who recently changed their affiliation towards the left and are polling around 6% and look set to retain their seats.

In Italy the 'refounded' Communists have formed an alliance with parties to their right but are still not seemingly having much success having lost all their seats in parliament at the last national elections.  The far left breakaway, SC - Critical Left, had poor results in the national elections and, disappointingly, are not contesting the European ones.

In Greece, the Syriza coalition of different leftists are polling around 5-8% and looking likely to retain their solitary seat, but the orthodox communists (KKE) are down to around the same levels and could lose one or two of their three seats, with the Green Party likely to be the main beneficiary.

In Germany, the Left - Die Linke, are polling up to 10%, the same as the once influential Green Party and look set to increase their tally beyond that of the 7 seats held by the former PDS ex-communists that are a large part of the Left.  They are likely to be the largest of the 'left of social democracy/greens' parties in the new EP.

[Pete Whitehead]

so in summary the far left are doing quite well everywhere in Europe except, er, Britain 

[Fisher_gate]

so in summary the far left are doing quite well everywhere in Europe except, er, Britain 

Well Italy is the pits for the left - at least in Britain they are contesting the elections in various guises! 

I've only covered 'old' Europe, I know less about Eastern Europe, but yes, though I would say generally 'better' rather than 'quite well'. 

Much depends on how well the NPA and DL do in France and Germany, though if they both got into double figures in seats as some polls have suggested that would be a brilliant breakthrough for new left parties.  I'm expecting rather more modest gains though.

[Andrea]

In Italy the 'refounded' Communists have formed an alliance with parties to their right but are still not seemingly having much success having lost all their seats in parliament at the last national elections.  The far left breakaway, SC - Critical Left, had poor results in the national elections and, disappointingly, are not contesting the European ones.

The "refounded" Communists actually split a few months ago (I assume you mean Rifondazione Comunista).
One part is the one which I think it's the part you refer when talking about forming an alliance with parties to their right (Greens, Democratic Left, parts of PSI and a split part from Italian Communists) called Sinistra e Libertà (Left and Freedom).
The rest (the majority of the old party, they still hold the Rifondazione Comunista rights and all) will contest the Euro Elections in a joint list with Italian Communists (which were a split from Rifondanzione at the time of first Prodi government, the ones who supported it in 1998). A split from the split from the left of old DS (those who refused to merge into PD) is there too.
Ok, I guess you may define them as at the RC right somehow.
So on the ballot papers there will be
Freedom and Liberty
Communist Refoundation-Italian Communists-Left for Europe-some others names I can't recall
Communist Party of Workers

None of them is expected to win seats now that the 4% threshold has been introduced. The 2 main left list will probably poll 4% overall, but not separately (one of them can get 3% I think)

I hope it all makes sense....

[Fisher_gate]

In Italy the 'refounded' Communists have formed an alliance with parties to their right but are still not seemingly having much success having lost all their seats in parliament at the last national elections.  The far left breakaway, SC - Critical Left, had poor results in the national elections and, disappointingly, are not contesting the European ones.

The "refounded" Communists actually split a few months ago (I assume you mean Rifondazione Comunista).
One part is the one which I think it's the part you refer when talking about forming an alliance with parties to their right (Greens, Democratic Left, parts of PSI and a split part from Italian Communists) called Sinistra e Libertà (Left and Freedom).
The rest (the majority of the old party, they still hold the Rifondazione Comunista rights and all) will contest the Euro Elections in a joint list with Italian Communists (which were a split from Rifondanzione at the time of first Prodi government, the ones who supported it in 1998). A split from the split from the left of old DS (those who refused to merge into PD) is there too.
Ok, I guess you may define them as at the RC right somehow.
So on the ballot papers there will be
Freedom and Liberty
Communist Refoundation-Italian Communists-Left for Europe-some others names I can't recall
Communist Party of Workers

None of them is expected to win seats now that the 4% threshold has been introduced. The 2 main left list will probably poll 4% overall, but not separately (one of them can get 3% I think)

I hope it all makes sense....

That's pretty much what I said ... all the choices are either irrelevant/sectarian ("Communist Party of Workers") or a shift to the right compared to the previous PRC positions.  For the left view (sinistra critica), in english, amusingly translated as against "the invertebrate left", see:
http://internationalviewpoint.org/spip.php?article1664