December by-elections leading to a review of 2009

[middle englander]

There are 13 by-election during NovDecember, bringing the total for the October to December Quarter (Q4) to 68 and for the full year to 280.  These can be summarised by:

                                    December                            Quarter 4                       Full year 2009
                           Contested      Defended        Contested      Defended        Contested      Defended

Conservatives              13                8                   65               38                 275               147
Labour                        12                1                   55                7                 222                 48
Lib Dems                     11                3                   61               12                 243                 51
Others                                           1                                     11                                       34

Total                                            13                                     68                                     280

The other candidates during December are:

SNP                             1                -
BNP                             3                1
Green                           2                -
UKIP                            4                 -
Independent                 4                 -
Kidderminster Health       1                 -
English Democrats          2                 -
Citizens                        1                 -

Sub-total                     18  bringing the total number of candidates for the 13 seats to 54.


Some statistics:
                          Seats defended         All councillors         Seats contested        Retention rate

Conservatives         147       53%                 46%                       98%                       79%
Labour                     48       17%                 21%                      79%                       77%
Lib Dems                  51       18%                 20%                       87%                      79%
Others                     34       12%                 13%                                                   48%

The Conservatives have defended 53% of all the seats where by-elections have been held.  This is slightly higher than the 46% they hold of all 20,000 odd council seats.  Overall the proportion of seats defended during 2009 is not dissimiler to the overall seats held by the respective parties / groups.

The Conservatives have contested all but 5 by-elections whereas both Labour and the Lib Dems have contested significantly fewer.  The seats not contested by the Conservatives were in Anglesey (contested by 2 Independents), Doncaster (Labour gain from Independent and where English Democrat came a relatively close second), Pembroke (Independent retains a seat won from a Lib Dem in an earlier by-election), Ryedale (where a Liberal gained the seat from a Liberal Democrat) and Torridge (Independent with close Conservative links gained seat from Lib Dem).

It is of note that the retention rate, defined as seats retained as the proportion of seats defended, is very similar for the main parties at not far short of 80% as at the end of November, whereas for Others it is slightly below 50%.  Overall, 25% of all seats have changed hands at the by-elections so far this year.
                    

[Listener]

Middle Englander

I think you have missed a by-election during the fourth quarter, because I make the tally 69, as follows :-
39 in October (11 on the 1st, 5 on the 8th, 13 on the 15th, 9 on the 22nd and 1 on the 29th)
17 in November (1 on the 5th, 3 on the 12th, 4 on the 19th and 9 on the 26th)
13 in prospect for December (2 on the 3rd, 10 on the 10th and 1 on the 17th).

I do agree that there were 212 by-elections in Q1, Q2 and Q3, bringing the total for the full year to 281 - that is unless there is another by-election in December that no-one has yet spotted.

[middle englander]

Middle Englander

I think you have missed a by-election during the fourth quarter, because I make the tally 69, as follows :-
39 in October (11 on the 1st, 5 on the 8th, 13 on the 15th, 9 on the 22nd and 1 on the 29th)
17 in November (1 on the 5th, 3 on the 12th, 4 on the 19th and 9 on the 26th)
13 in prospect for December (2 on the 3rd, 10 on the 10th and 1 on the 17th).

I do agree that there were 212 by-elections in Q1, Q2 and Q3, bringing the total for the full year to 281 - that is unless there is another by-election in December that no-one has yet spotted.

Think you may be including the Bedford Mayoral contest which I did specifically exclude.

[Listener]

Thanks - you are quite right that I was including the Bedford mayoral contest.

So 68 and 280 it is!

[middle englander]

The results of the 68 by-elections during the 4th quarter (October to December) of 2009 can be summarised by:

                          Contested      Defended      Retained      Gained      Lost      Won    

Conservatives            65                38               28              3          10         31      
Labour                      55                 7                 6              9            1         15
Lib Dem                     61                12                7             10           5         17
SNP                                              1                 1                                       1
BNP                                              1                                              1          -
Ind                                               9                 2              1            7          3
Liberal                                                                             1                        1

Total                                           68                44            24           24        68

Overall 24 seats changed hands, some 35% of the by-elections held.

Conservatives gained 3 seats
- 2 unopposed in East Devon and East Lindsey from Independents and Shepway from the Lib Dems
and lost 10 seats:
- 3 to Labour in Thanet, Weymouth and Wyre Forest
- 6 to Lib Dems in Cornwall, East Dunbarton, High Peak, Stratford-upon-Avon, West Devon & Wychavon
- 1 to Independents in the Forest of Dean

Labour lost a seat in Cannock Chase to the Lib Dems and gained 9 seats:
- 3 from the Conservatives
- 3 from the Lib Dems in Crawley, Knowsley and Rushmoor
- 2 from Independents in Doncaster and East Ayrshire
- 1 from the BNP in Nuneaton and Bedworth.

The Lib Dems gained 10 seats
- 6 from the Conservatives
- 1 from Labour
- 3 from Independents in Broadlands, Eden and North Norfolk,
and lost 5 seats
- 1 to the Conservatives
- 3 to Labour
- 1 to the Liberals (not Democrats) in Ryedale.

Others gained 2 seats,
- Independent in the Forest of Dean from Conservative and a Liberal from the Lib dems in Ryedale
and lost 8 seats
- 2 Independents to the Conservatives in East Devon and East Lindsey
- BNP to Labour in Nuneaton and Bedford
- an Independent in Doncaster and also East Ayrshire, both to Labour
- 3 Independents to Lib Dems in Broadlands, Eden and North Norfolk.

Out of the 24 seats that changed hands, Others were involved in 10 as either winners or losers.

So how did this compare to the quarter 4 of 1996, some 4 months before the last change of government?

                                Defended      Retained      Gained      Lost       Won           Net

1996 Labour                     42              33               7            9         40             -2
2009 Conservatives           38              28               3           10         31             -7

1996 Conservatives           19              17              18            2         35            +16
2009 Labour                      7                6               9             1         15            +8

1996 Lib Dems                  30               13               4           17        17            -13
2009 Lib Dems                  12                7              10            5         17             +5

1996 Others                     12                5               6             7         11             -1
2009 Others                     11                3               2             8          5              -6

1996 total                       103              68             35           35        103
2009 total                        68               44             24           24         68

In 1996 there were some 103 by-elections, around 50% more than in 2009.  However, 34% of these changed hands a very similar figure to the 35% in 2009.  Independents were involved in 37% of the seats that changed hands as either winners or loserscompared to 42% in 2009.

Labour retained 79% of the seats defended in 1996 compared to the Conservatives 74% in 2009.
Conservatives retained 89% of seats defended in 1996 compared to Labour 86% in 2009.
The Lib Dems retained 43% of seats defended in 1996 but this increased to 58% in 2009.
Others retained 42% of seats defended in 1996 but this fell to 27% in 2009.

The number and location of seats falling vacant is in many ways in the laps of the Gods.  Quarter 4 in 2009, which was in many respects a much better one for Labour than for some time, nevertheless showed similar characteristics, although in reverse between Labour and Conservatives, to quarter 4 in 1996.  Those who say the Conservatives should at this stage be winning all local council by-elections before them should recognise that Labour did not do so in 1996 whilst the picture is currently very similar to then, although the mirror image.

[bettemidler]

What about for the whole year?

[middle englander]

What about for the whole year?

Coming up, but I do have other things to do.

[bettemidler]

Looking forward to it thanks for all your efforts on this site

[middle englander]

There were 280 by-elections seats contested during 2009, although 2 should strictly be described as countermanded as they arose from the deaths candidates during the June elections.  The results can be summarised by:
                                                                                                                        Retention
                        Contested      Defended      Retained      Gained        Lost        Won        Rate

Conservatives          275              147             113             10           34          123         77%
Labour                    222               48               37             23           11            60         77%
Lib Dems                 243               51               40             28           11            68         78%
Others                                        34               16             13           18            29         47%

Total                                        280              206             74           74          280

Of the 280 by-elections, 74 or 26% changed hands.  Although the Conservatives lost most seats, this was due to them defending some 52% of the contests, a slightly higher proportion than the 46% of all seats held.  In fact the retention rate of seats was very similar for the 3 main parties at around 78% with all Others retaining less than half the seats they defended.  The 26% changing hands was slightly lower than in previous years when, for example, it was some 27% in 2008 and 30% in 2007, although the proportion was around the mid 30s% in earlier years.

The Conservatives gained 10 seats and lost 34, a net loss of 24:
- 2 gains off Labour, 3 from the Lib Dems, 1 off BNP and Ratepayers and 3 unopposed from Independents,
- 13 lost to Labour, 14 to the Lib Dems, 2 to the Greens, UKIP and Independents and 1 to Ratepayer.

Labour gained 23 seats and lost 11, a net gain of 12:
- 13 gains from Conservatives, 4 off Lib Dems, 2 SNP and Independent and 1 from both BNP and Green,
- 2 lost to Conservatives, 7 Lib Dems and 1 each to SNP and BNP.

Lib Dems gained 28 seats and lost 11, a net gain of 17:
- 14 gains from Conservatives, 7 Labour and 7 from Independents,
- 3 lost to the Conservatives 4 Labour, 2 Independents and 1 each to UKIP and the Liberals.

For the Others:
SNP gained 1 seat and lost 2
BNP gained 1 seat and lost 1 2
Greens gained 2 seats and lost 1
UKIP gained 3 seats
Independents gained 4 seats and lost 12
Ratepayers gained 1 seat and lost 1
Liberals gained 1 seat

Others were involved in 31 or 42% of the seats that changed hands, either as winners or losers.

Looking at the time frame for seats changing hands we have:

                                Jan - Mar              Apr - Jun            July - Sept             Oct - Dec
                            Gain  Loss  Net       Gain  Loss  Net       Gain  Loss  Net       Gain  Loss  Net

Conservatives            1      5     -4          2     11    -9         4      8     -4           3     10    -7
Labour                      4      4      0          7      3    +4         3      3       0           9      1    +8
Lib Dems                   5      1     +4          7     1     +6         6      4     +2         10      5    +5
Others                      2      2      0          2      3     -1         7      5     +2          2       8    -6

Thus 12 seats changed hands in Q1, 18 in Q2, 20 in Q3 and 24 in Q4.

I do have a further analysis looking at the characteristics of the seats that changed hands during the year but more work is needed before posting.  In the meantime, seasons greeting to all the readers.

[ajs41ajs]

It's very interesting to see that all 3 main parties had an almost identical retention rate of 77-78%.

[middle englander]

My previous posting has been amended to clarify that 280 seats were contested in the 2009 by-elections as two of the by-elections held were for 2 seats.  This posting looks at the type of authorities where the by-elections occured and draws some characteristics about the seats changing hands.

                         Number of        Proportion of           Proportion of        Seats changing hands
                      seats vacated  by-election seats      all Councillors         at 2009 by-elections
Type of authority     2009               2009                (20,000 total)                                
                                                    %                         %                    Number        %
Scottish UA              12                  4.3                        5.9                        7           58
Welsh                       6                   2.1                       6.1                         -            -
London Boroughs       23                   8.2                       9.0                        5            22
Metropolitan             33                  11.8                     11.8                        4            12
Unitary                    25                   8.9                      15.1                        7            28
County Councils          7                   2.5                       9.0                        2            29
District Councils       174                 62.1                      43.1                      49            28

Total                      280               100.0                                                  74            26

There were proportionately fewer by-elections in County Councils and Unitaries as the main elections in 2009 were in these authorities, but the number in Wales was also lower.  There were a proportionately much higher number in District Councils, where the Conservatives hold some 58% of all the seats compared to around 46% nationally.

In Scotland, the nature of the electoral system is likely to see a higher proportion of seats changing hands.  In most of the wards the party which lost the seat actually improved its share of the vote, but the system does benefit the largest local party.  Furthermore, in the 2 seats lost to the Lib Dems, the Conservatives topped the vote on 1st preferences before losing on subsequent rounds.  Wales had no seats change hands, whilst the Metropolitan Boroughs saw only about half the proportion of other authorities.  Distict Councils and London along with the Unitaries and County Councils were not far from the average of 26%.

The 49 changes in District Council can be further subdivided into 17 in multi-member wards which hold annual elections, 23 in multi-member wards where elections are held every 4 years and 9 in single member wards.  Whilst I do not have the full statistics, I suspect the single member wards do see a higher proportion change hands as individuality can be more important than party label in the smaller and generally less urban wards.

In Scotland, all the seats that changed hands were (almost) inevitably in "split" wards; that is where the councillors are from two or more different parties.  However, "split" wards were also a characteristic in many of the English seats, with 31 out of the 67 seats changing hands (46%) being in "splits" wards.  Taking Scotland into account, then half of all seats that changed hands during 2009 were in "split" wards.

As mentioned above, single member wards are also a significant feature characterising seats that change hands; around 15% of all the seats that did so in 2009 were in such wards.  A further characteristic was the seats where the defending party had gained in the previous election; therefore opponents had a reasonable expectation of at least doing well.  Excluding any overlap, particularly with "split" wards, this group is in excess of 10% of all seats changing hands and brings the total including "split" wards and single member seats to almost 80%.  It is of note that the proportion of seats lost by the Conservatives within these 3 categories was itself nearly identical to the overall 80%.
      
Now add on those cases where the former councillor has been disqualified or resigned for either criminal behaviour or failure to attend meetings, then the vast majority of seats that have changed hands during 2009 are covered.  Such an analysis may appear to be somewhat consistent with Tony Greaves' expression "slack water", although possibly more apt to say perturbations around the Conservatives being close to the peak of the local council seats held.

[middle englander]

And finally, a look at London, which will hold all out elections in May.  There were 22 by-elections for 23 seats during 2009, with one in Lewisham being for 2 seats.  The results can be summarised by:

                        Contested        Defended        Retained        Gained        Lost         Won

Conservative             23                 12                  9                -               3             9
Labour                     23                   7                  5                1               2             6
Lib Dems                  22                   4                  4                3               -             7
Greens                     15                  -                   -                -               -             -
BNP                          6                   -                   -                -               -             -
UKIP                         4                   -                   -                -               -             -
Others                     11                   -                  -                1               -             1

Total                                            23                 18               5              5             23

The Conservatives lost seats in Enfield (Jubilee) to Labour, Havering (St Andrews) to the local Ratepayers Association and Sutton (Nonsuch) to the Lib Dems.  All these wards were "split" in the 2006 elections.

Labour lost seats in Kensington & Chelsea (Colville) and Redbridge (Valentines) to the Lib Dems having won all 3 seats in both wards in 2006, although the Conservatives did win a by-election in Valentines in 2003.  The Lib Dems were second in Colville in 2006 and narrowly behind the Conservatives in Valentines when their previous councillor stood as an Independent.

The Lib Dems did not contest either the 2006 election or the by-election in Newham.  They also did not contest Enfield (Jubilee) and Havering (St Andrews) in 2006 but polled just 2.6% and 3.6% respectively in the by-elections.

The overall shares across the 22 by-elections (averaging the Lewisham votes) can be summarised by:

                                  2009                      Change since 2006 based on
                                                           Top candidate        Average vote
                                    %                             %                       %

Conservatives                38.1                          +2.3                    +2.2
Labour                          26.3                          -0.9                    -0.5
Lib Dems                       22.1                          +3.8                    +4.0
BNP                               4.0                          +3.2                    +3.2
Green                            4.1                           -4.4                    -4.6             
UKIP                              0.4                           -0.8                    -0.7 
Others                           5.0                           -3.2                    -3.4

The final by-election in Westminster (Queens Park) during Decemeber saw Labour's best performance of the year in terms of share change and the Conservatives second worst.  However, it was also the lowest turnout at just 16.2% and also saw the second worst Lib Dem performance.  It was likewise the best Green performance, polling 12% from nowhere, although they did achieve 32% in Hackney (Stoke Newington Central) increasing their share by 3% since 2006 and maintaining second position.  Elsewhere the Greens have seen their share decline.

[Sean Fear]

Thanks ME.  On that basis, the Conservatives and Lib Dems could both expect to make a net gain in stand-alone London local elections next year (I'd expect the Conservatives to fall back a bit in non-London seats).

However, if we assume that they'll be held on the same day as the General Election, this should benefit the Conservatives and Labour, somewhat, while hampering Lib Dems and minor parties.

[Gwynthegriff]

Excellent analysis ME

Can you just clarify re the performance of the BNP?  You have them as +1 and -1 in 2009.  The gain was Swanley?  In about March?  The loss Nuneaton in December?  But I'm sure I recall another loss during the year.  Or is that just wishful thinking?

[middle englander]

Excellent analysis ME

Can you just clarify re the performance of the BNP?  You have them as +1 and -1 in 2009.  The gain was Swanley?  In about March?  The loss Nuneaton in December?  But I'm sure I recall another loss during the year.  Or is that just wishful thinking?

You are right, and my figures for the breakdown of Others did not add up to the main table.

The BNP gained a seat from Labour in Sevenoaks on 19th February.
They lost a seat to the Conservatives in Broxtowe on 30th July and another to Labour in Nuneaton and Bedworth on 10th December.